Air Cargo Industry Off to a Lackluster Start in 2023

Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), was down 14.9% in January compared to the same period in 2022

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported a decrease in global air freight demand in January 2023 despite ongoing economic difficulties. The data revealed a 14.9% decline in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs) between January 2022 and January 2023, following an 8% decline in global air freight for all of 2022. This was a substantial change from 2021, but it was comparable to 2019 levels.

IATA, on the other hand, reported a 3.9% increase in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK) and a 1.4% increase in international cargo capacity in January 2023, attributed to the recovery of belly capacity in passenger airline markets. However, the capacity of international freighters has decreased.

IATA Director-General Willie Walsh remains cautiously optimistic about the air cargo industry despite the decline in demand. Higher yields compared to pre-pandemic levels and stabilizing production conditions in China are cited as reasons for optimism, as China is viewed as a promising source market for air cargo.

According to IATA, the volume of air cargo transported by Asia-Pacific airlines decreased by 19% year over year in January 2023, a slight improvement from December's 21.2% drop. The decline was attributed to decreased trade and manufacturing activity, as well as supply chain disruptions caused by lingering COVID restrictions in China and the timing of the Lunar New Year. Compared to January 2022, however, the region's available capacity increased by 8.8%.

Cargo volumes decreased 8.7% annually for North American carriers in January 2023, a decline that was marginally worse than the -8.5% decline observed in December. Cargo volumes decreased by 20.4% year-over-year for European carriers in January 2023, following a decrease of 19.9% in December. Regional airlines were hardest hit by the Ukrainian conflict, and Europe's capacity decreased by 9.3%.

In January 2023, Middle Eastern carriers reported a year-over-year decline in cargo volumes of 11.8%, a slight improvement from December's -14.2% decline. The region's capacity increased by 9.6% when compared to January 2022. IATA reports that in January 2023, Latin American carriers increased cargo volumes by 4.6% compared to the same month the previous year, the "strongest performance" of any region. In addition, the region's capacity increased by 34.4%. Cargo volumes decreased by 9.5% in January 2023 compared to the same month in 2022, a slightly better performance than the 10% decline recorded in December 2022.