CALIFORNIA'S CARGO LOSSES RISK JOB DRAIN FROM LOGISTICS-RELIANT ECONOMY

15/05/2023

By Miley

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Some observers worry that the Los Angeles-Long Beach docks will struggle to stay the US’s No. 1 ocean-freight gateway over the long run.

A shift to other ports is getting supercharged by simmering West Coast port labor talks — which are set to hit the one-year mark this week — as well as the near-shoring of factory production amid rising tensions with China, and US population growth shifting to the Sunbelt states.

US Cargo Shifts Eastward

The pandemic sped a shift in US imports through the East and Gulf Coasts

“Now that pandemic cargo volumes have leveled off, the decline in market share has accelerated,” said Pacific Merchant Shipping Association President John McLaurin in his April trade report.

The big winner? Gulf Coast ports. An April Descartes report showed West Coast container volumes were down 10% in the first quarter of 2023 compared with the same period in 2019. But Gulf ports saw a 43% increase in goods over the same period, and much of the cargo arriving includes electronics, furniture and machinery — products usually imported from Asia.

Containerized Import Flows at Major US Ports

LA-Long Beach remains the busiest hub but other ports are gaining a share

The supply-chain industry drives nearly a third of the state’s economy and supports one in five jobs in California. Even a small dip in cargo volume over the longer term could lead to a cascading loss of employment starting on the docks and spreading through tech, consulting, transportation, warehousing and retail.

“Anytime we see a slowdown in volumes this significant every segment of the supply chain feels it,” according to Port of Long Beach Chief Operating Officer Noel Hacegaba.

Terminal operators at the LA and Long Beach ports paid out about 400,000 shifts to dockworkers in the first quarter of 2023, a drop of about 25% from the same quarter in 2019, according to data from the PMA.

Some port customers will return their goods to Southern California once labor-contract talks for about 22,000 dockworkers have settled, which will be crucial for the region to remain a vibrant hub for supply chains.

“Shippers aren’t contemplating a shift back yet, but are not saying never,” said Anne Reinke, CEO of the Transportation Intermediaries Association.

Charted Territory

Globalization Remains Resilient

World trade still relatively steady amid war, famine and disease

Reglobalization signs | The global trading system is undergoing tectonic shifts that will reorient international supply chains for decades to come. Despite talk of globalization’s demise, economic integration via cross-border commerce has shown remarkable resilience through war, famine and a pandemic. Over the past three years, world trade as a share of global production has softened a bit but remains largely in line with historical trends. In fact, there has been no meaningful shift in the trajectory toward greater trade openness since at least 2006, according to a recent ING analysis. 

Today’s Must Reads

• Falls short | China’s largest trade fair was meant to be a triumphant return for the world’s manufacturing hub. Instead, the mood was downbeat as factories grapple with a global slowdown and a scarcity of US buyers. Meanwhile, China is expected to roll out new policies to protect supply chains and boost its birth rate.

• Tough month | German industrial production sank by the most in a year, raising the risk that Europe’s largest economy slipped into a winter recession.

• Capacity crunch | Estée Lauder is lagging behind its rivals as the reopening of China boosts the luxury-retail outlook. There’s a familiar culprit: supply-chain troubles.

• India rising | Apple chief Tim Cook singled out India as pivotal for the iPhone maker, underscoring how the world’s most populous country is on the cusp of becoming both a major market and production base.

• Heating up | China’s Hozon New Energy Automobile will start production in Thailand to sell in Southeast Asia, becoming the latest electric vehicle maker to begin building a supply chain in the region’s top auto-manufacturing hub. 

• Unleash potential | Africa’s free-trade area — if successfully implemented — could significantly boost economic growth and living standards amid rising geopolitical tensions and climate change, the IMF said. Separately, a free-trade agreement between Australia and the UK takes effect May 31.

• Chips boost | A bipartisan group of US senators introduced legislation that would allow President Joe Biden to sign a tax agreement with Taiwan, addressing an issue that businesses on both sides have pointed to as a barrier for further investment. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s exports fell in April at a slower pace than the month before.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

• Tough backdrop | Estimates of earnings per share for most less-than-truckload carriers may need to decline as soft demand continued in April, Bloomberg Intelligence says. 

• Deficit shrinks | The US merchandise-trade shortfall with China shrank to the smallest since the start of the pandemic, narrowing to $16.6 billion in March on an unadjusted basis as exports climbed 22% to a four-month high, Census Bureau data showed.

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