Diesel Price Hits 7-Week Consecutive Decline

Diesel futures prices trail more rapidly declining crude market taking cues from banking uncertainty

The benchmark diesel price published by the DOE/EIA declined for the 7th consecutive week (Photo: Jim Allen)

Retail Diesel Prices Continue to Fall

Retail diesel prices have continued their downward trend, with the Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration (DOE/EIA) weekly average retail price dropping another 6.2 cents per gallon. This decline comes as futures and wholesale markets react to the uncertainty caused by a potential banking crisis.

Consecutive Price Drops

The decrease puts the benchmark price, used for most fuel surcharges, at $4.185 per gallon. It marks the 16th drop in the past 19 weeks and the seventh consecutive decline. The price now stands $1.156 per gallon lower than the recent peak of $5.341 on October 24.

Comparing Diesel and Crude Price Drops

Diesel's recent decline in futures markets has been more resilient than crude oil prices, which have been affected by banking issues and potential global economic impacts on oil demand. The spread between ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) on the CME commodity exchange and the world crude benchmark Brent on the same exchange reached over 93 cents a gallon on Monday, up from 72 cents per gallon as recently as March 9.

Goldman Sachs Revises Forecast

Oil markets were abuzz on Monday with news that Goldman Sachs, known for its bullish stance on higher prices, has revised its earlier forecast that Brent would average $94 a barrel in the coming months and reach $97 by year-end. According to several news reports, the investment bank now predicts a year-end price of $100 a barrel.

Short-term Developments Impacting Diesel

Some short-term developments could be bullish for diesel, including the ongoing French refinery strikes, which entered their seventh day on Monday. While refineries continue to operate, worker blockades have hindered product movement, although some reports suggest that limited quantities have reached the market.

Physical diesel markets in the U.S., which have remained steady for several weeks, have experienced increased volatility in recent days, coinciding with the French strikes. Spreads in New York Harbor and the Gulf Coast have fluctuated, with the latter experiencing a significant drop.

Russian Production Remains Steady

Bearish news from Russia comes as Bloomberg reports that despite a slight decline in seaborne crude exports last week, there is little indication that the country has reduced production as promised. Russian exports dropped by 90,000 barrels per day to 3.23 million last week. However, substantial evidence of the pledged 500,000-barrels-a-day output cut for March has yet to emerge.

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