Reduction in Flight Time for Cargo Planes Highlights Weakness in Air Freight Market

Data shows express fleets feeling cutbacks too

Express delivery operators are feeling the pinch in air cargo volumes (Photo: Jim Allen)

The decline in flight hours for all-cargo airlines is an additional sign of the sluggish airfreight market, which is typically measured by tonnage or weight by distance carried.

Freighter aircraft utilization fell an estimated 8.1% in January, according to a recent report by investment bank BMO. This is the second steepest decline in three years after a 9% drop in December. Several airlines have recently reported reduced flight hours or have indicated they expect slower operating activity this year.

The year-over-year contraction in flight hours, which accelerated last fall, is affecting most markets. BMO Capital Markets said that the North America-Asia trade experienced a 15.5% decline in January while North America-Europe flight hours declined 7.7%. Meanwhile, freighter utilization fell 18.6% between Europe and Asia.

January saw a 4.8% decline in domestic North American flight hours, an improvement over December's 11.1% drop but a 3.6% decline from the same month in 2018. The December figure was affected by the absence of peak season orders as retailers liquidated excess inventory, and 2021 was a record-breaking year for air volumes.

Despite the decline in flight hours, global freighter utilization is 14% higher than it was prior to the pandemic.

Additionally, BMO's research revealed that flight hours decreased by 14.8% month-over-month in January, which is slightly worse than the seasonal norm for this slow period.

Global airfreight flight hours declined for the 10th consecutive month in January

The analysts estimated that FedEx's flight hours decreased by approximately 13% in December, while UPS's flight hours decreased by 8%. Cargojet was the only company that was able to maintain constant utilization year over year. However, the Canadian contract carrier recently stated that it anticipates a decline in aircraft flight hours this year, and DHL has already reduced its flight requirements.

FedEx also announced in late 2021 that, due to the decline in international shipping, it would reduce some routes and park several aircraft. In addition, Atlas Air reported a 7.7% decline in aircraft utilization during the fourth quarter, while Air Transport Services Group predicted a 5.0% decline in cargo aircraft utilization in 2023. Amazon and DHL Express have both reduced their schedules, with Sun Country flying 4% fewer hours for Amazon during the fourth quarter.

These examples are notable because they demonstrate that the soft market affects not only general cargo but also e-commerce trends.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which uses a different methodology based on cargo-ton kilometers, January volume declined 14.9% year over year, following declines of 13.6% in October, 13.7% in November, and 15.3% in December.

Due to manufacturing contracting in many countries and high interest rates affecting consumer spending, air cargo demand could remain subdued for some time. Moreover, more passenger aircraft with cargo space are returning to service after the COVID crisis, resulting in an increase in supply and less need for all-cargo jets, leading to lower rates.

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