For almost two years, Zim, the Israeli containership giant, faced harsh market penalties. The 10th-largest fleet on the seas struggled due to its unique model, operating a subscale, heavily chartered fleet exposed to the spot market. High COVID-era lease expenses collided with collapsing spot rates, causing the stock to plummet from its peak of $84.50 on March 18, 2022, to a low of $6.59 on Nov. 28, 2023.

However, a potential turnaround is on the horizon for the container market. Recent Houthi missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea forced steamship lines to reroute vessels, elongating crucial trade lanes and transit times. This strain on global fleet capacity has created conditions for spot rate increases, even on unaffected lanes like the trans-Pacific.

👉 Related post: Maersk expects Red Sea vessel diversions to extend into the second half of 2024

Analysts now speculate that what seemed like a temporary disturbance might persist, with sustained, elevated levels shown in key indexes. Drewry’s World Container Index – Global Composite stands at $3,659.41, while the Freightos Baltic Daily – Global reaches $3,331.54.

In January, Jefferies equity analyst Omar Nokta upgraded Zim to a "Buy," setting a $20 price target. Nokta highlighted a shift in Zim's narrative, emphasizing significant cash generation over the previous cash burn. Zim's high spot, high cost, and high leverage platform, once a concern during low freight rates, now present substantial upside potential.

Nokta estimated Zim's cost per twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU), including leasing fees, at $1,700. While 2023 saw a fall in realized freight rates to $1,200 per TEU, Nokta suggests Zim may now be capturing as much as $2,100 per TEU across its service lines.

Despite a bearish Q3 2023 earnings call, Zim's management hinted at optimism a week earlier. They announced the relaunch of the ZIM eCommerce Xpress (ZEX) service, indicating a positive outlook on the ocean freight market. This premium service, competing with air cargo, targets time-sensitive freight, and the decision to reintroduce it implies confidence in a hot trans-Pacific ocean freight market.

As the possibility of a Trump electoral victory and tariff threats on Chinese exports loom, Zim is well-positioned to capitalize on trends like tariff-avoiding pull-forward trade and intra-Asia business. In Q3 2023, Zim reported carried volumes of 867,000 TEUs, with up to 67% of its business in regions expected to heat up in 2024.

👉 More article: Red Sea Region Witnesses a 21% Decline in Cargo Volumes Amidst Rising Ship Attacks

New liquefied natural gas-powered charters, set to be delivered throughout the year, are expected to lower Zim's cost per TEU. Analysts, including Nokta, anticipate weak Q4 2023 results, but the focus is on CEO Eli Glickman's guidance and the potential for another chaotic yet lucrative year for Zim.

Content is exploited from Freightwaves.com, the article has been edited by Worldcraft Logistics' content team to update new information to readers. If you have any questions or comments, please leave us a contact.